Tarik Skubal is the clear headliner of a thinner-than-usual free agent class, and the calendar is forcing the rest of the market into a compressed window. With the collective bargaining agreement set to expire on Dec. 1 and a lockout widely expected, teams and agents have roughly a month to complete deals before transactions freeze. Industry projections consistently place Skubal in the $325–400 million range, with some estimates higher, making him the rare free agent who could set both the total guarantee and average annual value records for a pitcher.
MLB Trade Rumors ranked Skubal first with a projected nine-year, $425 million deal. Other outlets land in similar territory: ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel surveyed industry sources and found an average projection of eight years and roughly $355 million, while CBS Sports writers offered estimates from seven years/$325.5 million to eight years/$400 million. The Dodgers, Mets, and Padres are the names most frequently mentioned as serious bidders. Skubal, a two-time AL Cy Young winner who was traded from Detroit to Los Angeles at the 2026 deadline, is not eligible for a qualifying offer. Multiple reports indicate a majority of executives expect him to sign before any lockout begins, which would likely trigger a rush on secondary pitching targets.
Pitching Thin
Behind Skubal, the pitching market thins quickly. Trevor Rogers and Freddy Peralta are the next most consistent names across rankings. Rogers has restored velocity and results over the past two seasons with Baltimore after earlier injuries; Peralta rebounded after a midseason trade from the Mets to the Rays. Michael King, Seiya Suzuki, Randy Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Japanese third baseman Teruaki Sato (via the posting system) round out the upper tier in most lists from MLBTR, FanGraphs, CBS, and others. Suzuki, coming off a strong defensive season in right field alongside 26 home runs and an .841 OPS, received a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Arozarena also received one after a career-best year in Seattle.
The Lockout is having an Impact
The lockout risk is shaping behavior more than any individual ranking. In the weeks before the 2021-22 lockout, teams spent heavily as the deadline approached. Executives and agents expect a similar dynamic this November: players who want multi-year security may prefer to lock in deals under the current rules rather than wait for an uncertain new CBA that could include a salary cap or limits on contract length. Posted Japanese players face an even tighter window—their 45-day negotiation periods effectively end Dec. 1, or they return to NPB. Once Skubal signs, teams that miss out are expected to pivot quickly to the next available starters.
“Just A Bit Outside” of the Top 50
Just off the Top 50, MLB Trade Rumors highlighted a loose next tier led by Jack Flaherty and Gleyber Torres. Flaherty, limited by a left peroneal strain and right flexor inflammation to 88⅓ innings and a 4.48 ERA, still struck out 26% of hitters and is viewed as a one-year “pillow” candidate in the $10–12 million range. Torres hit .260/.364/.363 with a career-high 13.6% walk rate in 420 plate appearances; he is entering his age-30 season and is expected to land a short-term deal, with some projections in the one- or two-year, mid-teens-of-millions range. The gap between the back of most Top 50 lists and this group is modest—most are projected for one- or two-year contracts at mid-level salaries. MLBTR also noted roughly two dozen additional unranked players expected to secure major-league deals.
Other ranking systems place Torres and Flaherty in roughly the same neighborhood. Bleacher Report projected Torres for a one-year deal around $12 million with a mutual option; Spotrac has listed higher multi-year values for both. Neither is expected to return to Detroit, where the organization is prioritizing younger internal options at second base and in the rotation.
A Top Heavy Market
The market is not deep enough for a broad spending boom. Outside of Skubal, few players are projected for nine-figure guarantees. Qualifying offers (worth $23.15 million this year) went to eight players, including Rogers, Suzuki, Arozarena, and Chisholm Jr. Teams that move early can secure rotation help or middle-of-the-order bats before the freeze; those that wait risk a thinner, more expensive landscape once the CBA situation clarifies—or a prolonged pause if negotiations drag into the spring.
For now, the priority for most contenders is clear: address pitching before the calendar forces the issue, and treat the next few weeks as a de facto deadline.
